US-Israel Iran War Live Updates

Analysts describe the current state of the ceasefire as precarious, with reports emerging that high-ranking IRGC officials are urging retaliation against Israel for its ongoing strikes in Lebanon. According to Professor Mohammad Eslami of the University of Tehran, Iran’s negotiators are facing immense pressure to ensure Lebanon’s protection as part of any agreement.

Eslami emphasized that Iran’s decision-making process is driven by strategic considerations. He posited that if the US fails to prevent Israel from attacking Lebanon during a ceasefire, it raises questions about the US’s ability to restrain Israel from targeting Iran once a deal is reached. This concern is fundamentally shaping Iran’s approach to the upcoming negotiations in Islamabad.

Eslami also highlighted Iran’s significant bargaining power, citing the fact that it was the US that initially agreed to Iran’s proposals for a ceasefire. He stated that Iran possesses at least three months’ worth of military capacity, which it can draw upon if negotiations break down. Notably, Eslami pointed to the Strait of Hormuz as a crucial factor in Iran’s leverage, noting that the energy and financial markets were on the brink of collapse before the ceasefire was established. He attributed the Trump administration’s willingness to engage in negotiations to the threat of a catastrophic economic collapse.

Reports indicate that at least four individuals remain entombed beneath the rubble in the Ain el-Mreisseh neighborhood of Beirut, their fate confirmed by local civil defense personnel as non-survival. Overnight, rescue efforts continued unabated, with the primary concern now shifting to retrieval operations. Amidst the devastation, distraught relatives have been seen gathering what little remains of their loved ones’ belongings, a poignant reminder of the lives irreparably shattered by this disaster.

The past week has witnessed the most intense violence in Lebanon since the US-Israel conflict with Iran entered its sixth week. On Thursday, Israel confirmed the death of a close associate of Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem, as its military operations continued unabated.
Israel and the US maintain that the ceasefire agreement only applies to hostilities between the US, Israel, and Iran. In a statement on Wednesday, US President Donald Trump clarified that the Israeli strikes on Lebanon were not part of the ceasefire agreement.
The recent escalation has highlighted the discrepancies and misunderstandings surrounding the ceasefire’s scope, casting doubt on its sustainability even before formal negotiations for a lasting peace resolution commence.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has condemned the recent Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon, asserting that they contravene the ceasefire agreement with the US and effectively nullify ongoing diplomatic efforts. In a statement, Pezeshkian reaffirmed Iran’s commitment to the people of Lebanon, despite the escalating situation. This assertion comes in the wake of the most intense Israeli bombardment of Lebanon since the latest conflict with Hezbollah commenced last month, resulting in the loss of at least 200 lives on Wednesday.

In a recent statement on X, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf underscored the significance of Lebanon within the framework of a two-week ceasefire with the US, cautioning that any breaches would have far-reaching repercussions. This warning comes in the aftermath of a series of devastating Israeli attacks on Lebanese soil.

According to the Israeli military, Hezbollah launched approximately 30 rockets at communities in the north, prompting widespread alarm as air raid sirens pierced the air in multiple locations, including Kiryat Shmona and the Galilee Panhandle.

Pakistan’s former UN Ambassador Maleeha Lodhi has offered her perspective on the upcoming diplomatic talks in Islamabad, where the US delegation will be led by Vice President JD Vance.
According to Lodhi, the White House’s selection of Vance has been met with a favorable response in Pakistan. This positive reception is attributed to Vance’s reported reservations about military action against Iran, as well as his distinction from Trump’s previous negotiators, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who are not seasoned politicians.
Lodhi believes that Vance’s experience as a politician is a significant factor in his appointment, citing the importance of understanding the ‘art of the possible’ in diplomatic negotiations. She views the Trump administration’s decision to have Vance lead the talks as a prudent move.

In a recent interview with Al Jazeera, Maleeha Lodhi, Pakistan’s former Ambassador to the UN, emphasized the importance of fostering a “broad understanding” between the US and Iran during upcoming talks in Islamabad. Lodhi suggested that while a comprehensive agreement might not be feasible within a short timeframe, the two nations could establish a foundation for future negotiations by building mutual trust and outlining the parameters of a potential deal. According to Lodhi, the current impasse stems from the US’s 15-point and Iran’s 10-point proposals, which are in conflict. However, Lodhi proposed that the two sides could return to their respective capitals to secure approval and then work out the finer details of a deal at a later stage.

According to Zeidon Al-Kinani of the Arab Perspectives Institute, Iran’s stance on Lebanese security is deeply intertwined with its own national security, yet Tehran remains unwilling to compromise its fundamental interests for the sake of Hezbollah.

Al-Kinani pointed out that Iran has a history of strategically disengaging from its proxy networks, including Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, and Hamas, whenever its core objectives take precedence.

He observed that the ongoing conflict has evolved into a complex, multi-faceted issue involving numerous parties and interests, making a clean resolution increasingly unlikely.

Al-Kinani cautioned that any viable path forward necessitates a collective effort from the key players to rectify past mistakes, including abandoning allies, disregarding regional ecological and economic realities, and taking actions without consulting regional partners.

While Al-Kinani acknowledged that European diplomatic efforts, particularly those led by France, may help mitigate immediate pressure, he emphasized that a genuine path to complete de-escalation remains elusive.

Reports from Lebanon indicate that the government has issued a formal appeal for direct negotiations with Israel, a development that arises in the midst of the most intense Israeli strikes on the country in six weeks.