A social media watchlist has identified two suspicious wagers on Polymarket, a platform for speculative betting on global events, that coincided with the US ceasefire with Iran. One individual successfully wagered $400,000 on the precise commencement of the US operation against Iran and the subsequent ceasefire date, which was achieved on Wednesday, according to the X account Polymarket History.
Polymarket has faced criticism over potential insider trading due to an uptick in anonymous accounts placing remarkably well-timed bets on US policy decisions. A surge in suspicious wagers was initially flagged by X users earlier this year following US President Donald Trump’s attack on Venezuela, and this pattern has persisted throughout the US-Israeli conflict with Iran.
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