A joint report by the United Nations and the African Union has sounded the alarm that Africa’s economic growth could be severely impacted if the conflict in Iran prolongs beyond six months. According to the report, which was presented at the UN’s Economic Commission meeting in Tangier, the African continent could experience a 0.2 percentage point decline in GDP growth in 2026.
The report cautions that the longer the conflict persists, the more severe the disruptions to shipping routes and the supply chains of essential commodities like energy and fertilisers, the greater the risk of a significant slowdown in economic growth across Africa. Although the report does not provide a detailed analysis of the potential impact on inflation, it warns that the conflict could also trigger a cost-of-living crisis, with some countries being more severely affected by fertiliser shortages than by rising oil prices. The report highlights that the Middle East accounts for approximately 16 percent of Africa’s imports and 11 percent of its exports.
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