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Africa’s Economic Growth at Risk if Conflict Persists Beyond Six Months

A joint report by the United Nations and the African Union, in collaboration with the African Development Bank, has sounded a warning that prolonged conflict could lead to a substantial decline in Africa’s economic growth. According to the report, the continent’s GDP growth could be reduced by 0.2 percentage points in 2026 if the conflict in the Middle East drags on for more than six months.

The report, presented at the United Nations Economic Commission meeting in Tangier, highlights the devastating impact of the conflict on Africa’s economy, particularly in areas dependent on shipping routes, energy, and fertiliser supplies. The longer the conflict persists, the greater the risk of a significant slowdown in economic growth across the continent, the report warns.

While the report does not provide a detailed analysis of the potential impact on inflation, it cautions that the conflict could trigger a cost-of-living crisis, with some countries more severely affected by fertiliser shortages than rising oil prices. Notably, the Middle East accounts for nearly 16 percent of Africa’s imports and 11 percent of its exports, underscoring the region’s critical role in the continent’s economic dynamics.

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