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Fragile Ceasefire in the Gulf Hangs in the Balance as US-Iran Talks Loom

A temporary reprieve was granted to the Gulf region on Tuesday evening, following the agreement between Iran and the United States on a two-week ceasefire, effectively halting over a month of escalating hostilities and heated exchanges.
As negotiations are set to commence in Islamabad, Pakistan, over the weekend, analysts caution that Gulf states remain apprehensive about the possibility of the US, seeking a swift exit, compromising on terms that would grant Iran a degree of influence over the Strait of Hormuz.
According to Hesham Alghannam, a scholar based in Saudi Arabia and affiliated with the Malcolm H Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, there is a growing unease that President Trump, driven by a desire for a swift political triumph, might be willing to tolerate some Iranian sway over the strait in exchange for a fragile truce, prioritizing appearances over the realities faced by Gulf nations.
A worst-case scenario, in which a resilient yet emboldened Iranian leadership retains control over the strait, would pose a dire threat to the energy-rich Gulf countries, leaving them vulnerable to constant disruptions and economic coercion, Alghannam warned.

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