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Israel’s Compliance in Question as Ceasefire Looms

The extent to which Israel will adhere to a potential truce remains uncertain. A crucial factor will be the inclusion of Hezbollah and Lebanon in the agreement, with conflicting signals on this point. Some insiders within Israel suggest that Lebanon would be excluded from any ceasefire, viewing it as a vital component of their national security. This stance is closely tied to their ongoing campaign against Hezbollah, which Iran is reluctant to separate from the broader conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran. This complex dynamic has implications for the ceasefire’s prospects.

Given the US’s senior role in brokering the deal, with Donald Trump’s assertion of a forthcoming ceasefire, it’s challenging to envision Israel resisting this development. The country’s past behavior during the 12-day conflict in June, when a ceasefire was initially agreed upon but later disputed, serves as a precedent. Ultimately, a decisive factor will be whether Israel can be persuaded to accept the ceasefire, or if it will continue to resist, as it did during the previous conflict, with a personal intervention from Donald Trump ultimately facilitating a resolution.

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